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LP

Lantern Pharma Inc. (LTRN)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 net loss was $5.9M (-$0.54 per share) vs. $4.2M (-$0.39) in Q4 2023; R&D rose to $4.3M and G&A to $1.6M, with cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at ~$24.0M as of year-end 2024 .
  • EPS modestly missed Wall Street consensus for Q4 2024 (-$0.51*) by ~$0.03; revenue consensus was $0.0* with no revenue disclosed in the release [Q4 2024 estimates from S&P Global; see table and disclaimer below].
  • Clinical execution advanced: LP‑300 HARMONIC lead-in cohort showed 86% CBR and 43% ORR; expansion sites in Japan and Taiwan began dosing, with Asia enrollment pacing 2–4x faster than U.S. and near‑term readouts targeted mid‑ to late‑Q2 2025 .
  • LP‑184 strengthened the regulatory position with Fast Track designations in GBM and TNBC and progressed to higher Phase 1a dose cohorts with early signals of activity; management aims to initiate Phase 1b/2 combination studies (e.g., with olaparib) pending clinical priorities/funding .
  • Platform catalysts: RADR® surpassed 100B oncology data points; BBB-permeability module achieved top leaderboard ranks; ADC module identified 82 targets and 290 target‑indication combinations—management expects public module launches and partner traction in 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • HARMONIC lead-in cohort delivered 86% clinical benefit rate and 43% objective response rate in never‑smoker NSCLC; Asia expansion started dosing and is accelerating enrollment (“It is about 2 to 4x faster…”) .
  • LP‑184 advanced safety and dose escalation through cohorts 7–11 with early indications of clinical activity; FDA Fast Track secured for GBM and TNBC to expedite development .
  • AI platform momentum: BBB algorithm ranks among top on Therapeutic Data Commons; ADC module discovered 82 targets/290 combinations; RADR® topped 100B data points, enabling biomarker signature and combination strategies .

Quote:

  • “Our leadership in the innovative use of AI and machine learning… should yield significant returns… 2024 was a transformational year…” — Panna Sharma, CEO .

What Went Wrong

  • Losses widened: Q4 net loss increased to $5.9M and EPS to -$0.54 YoY, driven by higher R&D investment and G&A; full-year loss per share was -$1.93 vs. -$1.47 in 2023 .
  • LP‑184 readout timing slipped from late 2024 expectations to Q2 2025 as dose levels escalated to higher cohorts (now ~0.61 mg/kg at dose level 12), extending timeline .
  • Funding overhang: CFO reiterated ~12 months runway from December 31, 2024 and expects “substantial additional funding” will be needed in 2025, increasing financing risk .

Financial Results

Income Statement and Cash

Metric ($USD)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
R&D Expense ($MM)$3.9 $3.7 $4.3
G&A Expense ($MM)$1.5 $1.5 $1.6
Net Loss ($MM)$4.96 $4.5 $5.9
Diluted EPS ($)-0.46 -0.42 -0.54
Cash, Cash Eq. & Mkt. Sec. ($MM)$33.3 (as of 6/30/24) $28.1 (as of 9/30/24) ~$24.0 (as of 12/31/24)

Note: Revenue was not disclosed in the company’s Q4 release; LTRN is a clinical-stage company and did not report product revenue for the period .

EPS vs Consensus

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
EPS Consensus Mean ($)-0.55*-0.56*-0.51*
Actual EPS ($)-0.46 -0.42 -0.54
Surprise ($)+0.09*+0.14*-0.03*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.* Coverage is thin (typically 1 estimate per quarter in 2024).

Clinical KPIs and Execution

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
LP‑300 HARMONIC Lead-in CBR (%)86% (7 pts) 86% (detail reiterated) 86% (trend reinforced)
LP‑300 HARMONIC Lead-in ORR (%)43% (7 pts) 43% (detail reiterated) 43% (trend reinforced)
LP‑300 Asia ExpansionIRB/site init Japan/Taiwan First patient dosed in Japan; 10 sites screening First patient enrolled/dosed in Taiwan
LP‑184 Phase 1a CohortsCohorts 1–7 completed, no DLTs ≥9 cohorts; no DLTs Dose levels 7–9 cleared; on cohort 11 with early activity
LP‑184 Regulatory—Fast Track (GBM) Fast Track (TNBC)
RADR® Platform Milestones——>100B oncology data points; BBB algorithm top ranks; ADC module targets

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
LP‑300 HARMONIC InterimMid‑2025 (31 events)Interim after 31 progressions; mid‑2025 Near‑term readout mid‑ to late‑Q2 2025; key 30‑event readout likely end‑2025 Refined: added near‑term Q2 update; key readout timing framed (end‑2025)
LP‑184 Phase 1a DataQ4 2024/Early 2025Initial safety/molecular data by YE 2024/early 2025 Broader clinical data update slated for Q2 2025; cohorts escalated (11–12) Pushed to Q2 2025
LP‑184 Phase 1b/2 Start2025Planning TNBC combo with olaparib; no FDA objections Expect initiation in US & Nigeria, subject to priorities/funding Maintained; reiterated geographies
LP‑300 Asia Enrollment Pace2025Acceleration expected post expansion Asia enrollment 2–4x faster than U.S.; equal output in past months Raised (pace stronger than prior narrative)
Cash Runway12 months+Runway into late 2025 (Q3 call) ~12 months from 12/31/24; pursuing additional funding in 2025 Lowered/clarified (runway now 12 months; funding need explicit)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2)Previous Mentions (Q-1)Current Period (Q4)Trend
AI/Platform modulesRADR® guiding programs; collaboration with Oregon Therapeutics Emphasis on expanding RADR®, BBB prediction to be showcased Agentic AI vision; BBB module top ranks; ADC module public availability; Project Zeta Strengthening; moving to external deployment
LP‑300 HARMONICLead-in 86% CBR/43% ORR; Asia site init Interim at 31 patients; Asia expansion to 10 sites Asia dosing; 2–4x faster enrollment; mid‑ to late‑Q2 2025 readout; 30‑event key readout end‑2025 Accelerating enrollment; clearer readout cadence
LP‑184 (GBM/TNBC)Cohorts 1–7; no DLTs; diagnostic PTGR1 in progress Fast Track GBM; GBM patients enrolled; plan Phase 1b/2 Fast Track TNBC; early activity at higher dose; plan for olaparib combo; dose ~0.61 mg/kg (cohort 12) Advancing dose; regulatory momentum
ADC initiativesPublished AI module; target/payload discovery HER2‑low potency data; partnerships expected 82 targets/290 indications; multi‑payload future concepts discussed Building pipeline and collaborations
Funding/runway$33.3M cash; runway into Q3 2025 $28.1M cash; runway into late 2025 ~$24.0M cash; ~12 months runway; plan to pursue funding in 2025 Runway shortened; financing focus increasing

Management Commentary

  • “With three clinical precision oncology programs actively enrolling patients and critical data milestones on the horizon, we are at the forefront of using AI to transform the cost, pace, and timeline of oncology drug development.” — Panna Sharma, CEO .
  • “Our HARMONIC trial… achieved an 86% clinical benefit rate and a 43% objective response rate… These aren't just numbers, they represent a potential change in survival and hope for patients…” — Panna Sharma .
  • “We believe the synergy [LP‑184 + PARP inhibitors]… is elegant… LP‑184 breaking apart the DNA and… PARP inhibitors stopping… repair.” — Panna Sharma .

Q&A Highlights

  • Asia enrollment pace for HARMONIC is ~2–4x faster than U.S.; equal recent output, faster onboarding-to-first-patient timelines .
  • HARMONIC readouts: near‑term mid‑ to late‑Q2 2025 update; key 30‑event readout likely toward end‑2025 to inform partnering/larger trial decision .
  • LP‑184 dosing escalation: current dose level ~0.61 mg/kg (cohort 12); timeline extended as higher therapeutic doses reached without significant SAEs .
  • ADC pipeline: strong HER2‑low potency data; partnerships forthcoming; exploring multi‑payload architectures (longer‑term) .
  • Funding and tech partnerships: CFO expects substantial additional funding in 2025; ongoing discussions with big tech to leverage agentic modules (e.g., BBB) .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2024 EPS: actual -$0.54 vs consensus -$0.51*, a ~$0.03 miss; revenue consensus was $0.0*, consistent with the company not disclosing revenue in Q4 2024 . Coverage is thin (1 estimate).
  • Prior quarters show beats as expenses were lower: Q2 2024 actual -$0.46 vs -$0.55*; Q3 2024 actual -$0.42 vs -$0.56*.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • HARMONIC performance in never‑smoker NSCLC (86% CBR/43% ORR) plus Asia acceleration (2–4x faster) creates near‑term clinical catalysts (mid‑ to late‑Q2 2025) and 30‑event readout toward end‑2025 that could drive partnering/licensing, especially in Japan/Taiwan markets .
  • LP‑184 momentum (Fast Track GBM/TNBC) and early higher‑dose activity supports initiating Phase 1b/2 combination trials (e.g., olaparib) and potential IO combinations (anti‑PD‑1) in TNBC; watch for broader Phase 1a data Q2 2025 .
  • RADR®/AI modules (BBB prediction, ADC design) moving toward broader external access may unlock collaboration revenue and strategic partnerships—an important offset to funding needs .
  • Financial profile entails continued burn: Q4 net loss widened and R&D stepped up; cash ~$24.0M with ~12 months runway highlights financing risk and potential dilution in 2025—timing of clinical readouts will be pivotal for capital formation .
  • Low sell‑side coverage makes outcomes/data flow primary stock drivers; near‑term catalysts include HARMONIC interim update (Q2 2025), LP‑184 Phase 1a broader readout (Q2 2025), and any ADC module partnership announcements .
  • For trading, focus on clinical milestones and Asia enrollment updates; for medium‑term, thesis hinges on demonstrating LP‑184 clinical activity and securing partnering to mitigate financing overhang .
  • Watch regulatory/operational signals: continued Fast Track utilization, diagnostic PTGR1 validation, and agentic AI module launches can shift narrative toward platform value creation .
S&P Global estimates disclaimer: All consensus estimate figures marked with an asterisk (*) were retrieved from S&P Global.

Appendix: Additional Q4 2024 Press Releases and Highlights

  • LP‑184 received Fast Track Designation in TNBC; robust preclinical TNBC activity, including PARPi‑resistant models .
  • SNO 2024 presentation outlined LP‑184 (STAR‑001) Phase 1b design in GBM, combining spironolactone to induce ERCC3 degradation and enhance synthetic lethality .
  • First HARMONIC patient dosed in Japan and first patient enrolled/dosed in Taiwan, with ~10 Asia sites actively screening .